NFL running back controversy Team grades on seven biggest veteran RB deals since Ezekiel Elliott contract

NFL running back controversy Team grades on seven biggest veteran RB deals since Ezekiel Elliott contract

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In case you haven't noticed, veteran running backs have seen better days. Veteran RBs this offseason:Took paycut: Joe Mixon, Aaron JonesCut: Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, Leonard FournetteTagged, but no deal: Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard.Wanted new deal and asked for trade: Austin EkelerHas been a FA all offseason: Kareem Hunt Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) Perhaps the most alarming news pertains to the three franchise-tagged running backs, , and . by Monday's deadline as the market is still feeling the effects of three bad deals handed out to , and in recent years.There's no denying it may not be wise to pay a running back. They are uber-talented, but expendable, coupled with a short shelf life. However, with the it's also worth noting how recent backs are turning the tide on an ugly history of veteran contracts at the position.Here I grade the last seven veteran running backs to sign a contract worth at least $10 million annually since the Elliott deal in 2019. The grades are from the perspective of the team to give out the contract. CLE RB #24 3 years$36.6 million$20 million guaranteedGrade: A-Chubb has shown no signs of slowing down in two seasons since signing his deal. He finished third in the league in rushing last season behind Josh Jacobs and , and became the first player in NFL history to average at least five yards per rush in five straight seasons (minimum 100 rushes each season). He could have easily won the rushing title last year had Cleveland's offense not sputtered so much after made his team debut. The only reason he's not graded higher here is because he doesn't offer much catching the ball out of the backfield. GB RB #33 Att213Yds1121TD2FL3 4 years$48 million$13 million guaranteedGrade: BJones hasn't been dominant by any stretch since inking a four-year T.J. Hockenson Jersey deal in 2021, but he's been solid while sharing the load with teammate . Jones finished seventh in the league in scrimmage yards last season (1,516), while averaging more than five yards per carry. He's shown no signs of slowing down, as he averaged 0.69 yards per rush over expected last season, right around his career average (NFL Next Gen Stats). NO RB #41 TAR77REC57REC YDs490REC TD2FL4 5 years$75 million$34 million guaranteedGrade: CKamara's stock is dropping as he enters the fourth year of a lucrative five-year deal signed back in 2020. He started the deal off with a bang in 2020, leading the NFL in yards per touch (6.3) and touchdowns (21). But he's been pedestrian ever since, partially because he's been underutilized in the pa sing game following the retirement of Drew Brees. This deal may get even worse with a potential suspension looming to begin the season. BAL RB #33 Att264Yds1173TD8FL4 5 years$63 million$28 million guaranteedGrade: COn one hand, Cook was second in the NFL in rushing behind only Derrick Henry in three seasons since signing a five-year deal in 2020. You can hardly call his deal a disappointment. However, he was released by the this offseason after his declining production was no longer worth his high salary. Among the top 13 running backs in rush yards last season, he was the only one with negative rush yards over expected (NFL Next Gen Stats). CIN RB #28 Att210Yds814TD7FL0 4 years$48 million$10 million guaranteedGrade: C-Mixon on the four-year deal he signed back in 2020. He ranks 11th in the NFL in scrimmage yards (3,340) and 10th in touchdowns (29) since signing that deal, but underwhelmed with 3.9 yards per rush and 4.5 yards per touch in that span. TEN RB #22 Att349Yds1538TD13FL3 4 years$50 million$26 million guaranteedGrade: A-Despite the trade rumors, Henry is still on the entering the final year of his four-year deal. The first three years have been pretty darn good, besides a slight downtick in his yards per carry average.2020: Rushed for 2,027 yards, the fifth-most in a season in NFL history2021: Led the NFL with 937 rush yards through Week 8 (288 more than anyone else) before mi sing the rest of the regular season with an injury2022: Finished second in the league in rushing (1,538)The injury was a setback in 2021, but flirting with a rushing title in each of the first three years of this deal is also remarkable. Henry's play hasn't put the Titans over the top, but I think his production is about all they could have asked for. SF RB #23 Att244Yds1139TD8FL0 4 years$64 million$36 million guaranteedGrade: FMcCaffrey gets an F from the perspective of the after signing a deal that made him the highest-paid running back in the NFL ($16 million per season). He mi sed 23 of 33 games in the first two years of the deal from 2020 to Jalen Mills Jersey 2021, and Carolina was actually better after trading him in 2022 with a RB timeshare of and . Carolina at least parlayed his hot start in 2022 to a second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-round pick from the , but CMC still costs $18.3 million against the Panthers' 2023 cap. McCaffrey returned to superstar form in 2022 and looked like he could carry San Francisco to a , but they also didn't give him his long-term deal.Those seven contracts are a mixed bag, although mostly positive, from a team perspective.The player perspective tells a slightly different story. Those seven players all ranked among the top 16 fantasy running backs in 2022. 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Veteran RBs to sign $10M/year contract since 20202022 fantasy rankChristian McCaffrey2ndDerrick Henry4thNick Chubb6thAaron Jones9thJoe Mixon10thDalvin Cook11thAlvin Kamara16thAs a group, they've outperformed their rookie deals, averaging more yards and touchdowns per season, with a slight downtick in efficiency.This also doesn't even include , who led the NFL in touchdowns scored in each of the last two seasons and is playing on a four-year deal worth $24.5 million.Average season of veteran RBs paid $10M/year Since 2020Rookie dealScrimmage yards1,4011,260Touchdowns10.310.0Yards per touch5.15.4It's a start, but it's going to take more than a few OK deals to reverse years of diminishing returns on lucrative contracts handed out to veteran running backs.In case you need a reminder on the biggest flops:Ezekiel Elliott was released this offseason (and remains unsigned) after he finished last in the NFL in yards per touch (3.9) in 2022 and clearly looked like a shell of his former self. He was set to enter the fifth year of a six-year deal.Todd Gurley was released two years into a four-year, $60 million dollar deal after a down year in 2019. He played one more season in his career.Le'Veon Bell was released by the halfway through the second year of a four-year deal worth $53 million.A deeper look at the 20 largest contracts ever given to veteran running backs (in terms of guarantees) supports the buyer beware sentiment.Of the 16 completed deals, only three players actually played the full length of the deal with the team that signed them:. . .Top 20 largest veteran RB contracts (guarantees) in NFL historyEzekiel Elliott (2019)$50MTodd Gurley (2018)$45MChristian McCaffrey (2020)$36MAdrian Peterson (2011)$36MLe'Veon Bell (2019 Tyler Lockett Jersey )$35MAlvin Kamara (2020)$34M(2018)$32M(2011)$30MDalvin Cook (2020)$28M(2015)$26MDerrick Henry (2020)$25MJonathan Stewart (2012)$23M(2017)$22M(2012)$22M(2011)$21M(2015)$21MLeSean McCoy (2012)$21M(2012)$21MSteven Jackson (2008)$21MNick Chubb (2021)$20MIf you look at the collective efforts of those 20 deals, you'll see a decline in returns from what they did over their rookie deals.The contracts of DeMarco Murray, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart really brought down the averages.Average season of top 20 largest veteran RB contracts in NFL historyRookie dealScrimmage yards1,2061,409Touchdowns7.99.8Yards per touch4.85.4What does it all mean? The history of veteran running backs to get ma sive paydays is still ugly, but improving. With the exception of the Panthers and McCaffrey, I don't think there's extreme buyer's remorse on the most recent veteran RB deals.
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